From CNN Politics:
Palin not present at RNC but still a presence
Washington (CNN) -- Sarah Palin may have electrified
the 2008 Republican presidential ticket when she was picked as John
McCain's running mate, but just four years later her wattage has dimmed
on the Republican stage.
She was snubbed for a
coveted speaking role at the Republican National Convention in Tampa
even though McCain, the senator from Arizona who surprised many when he
selected Alaska's governor, is scheduled to speak.
Other speaking spots were doled out to lesser lights like Rick Santorum,
who vied unsuccessfully for the nomination this year.
Once the face of the tea
party movement, Palin is not among speakers listed for the Tea Party
Unity Rally on Sunday. Former presidential candidates Rep. Michele
Bachmann, R-Minnesota, and pizza magnate Herman Cain are headlining.
With Republicans
positioning themselves for a presidential run last year, Palin drew the
most attention when she rode into Washington on the back of a motorcycle
before launching a bus tour. She eventually opted against a White House
bid.
Instead, Palin has hit
the trail for down-ballot candidates in competitive congressional races,
stumping for such political mavericks as Indiana Senate candidate
Richard Mourdock and more mainstream politicians like Sen. Orrin Hatch
of Utah.
Palin's mission: to
recreate the same kind of success she had in the 2010 midterm elections
when many of the candidates she endorsed won.
Political experts say
Palin is also carefully calculating how to wield her burgeoning
kingmaker status and star power to position herself for even greater
prominence in the party.
"She has a tremendous amount of pull among the people who make up the
800-pound gorilla in the party -- the conservative base of the party,"
said Keith Appell, a Republican strategist and senior vice president at
CRC Public Relations. "She will be a force to be reckoned with for the
foreseeable future and beyond."
But first she has to figure out how to get back into the bigger national spotlight, political experts say.
During this presidential
election cycle, Palin has been relegated to the farm leagues, said Norm
Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and
co-author of the book "It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American
Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremism." It
is a role that she slipped into through her own failure to bone up
policy matters, he said.
"I think it's really
interesting that she has fallen so far in the last year that they have
no interest in having her appear at the convention," Ornstein said. "In a
lot of ways this political capital she pretty much squandered by
becoming a Fox News commentator and going on reality television instead
of deepening her knowledge of policy issues. She decided to focus more
on making money than on throwing herself into remaining deeply relevant
in politics."
In her absence, some of
the same Republican women who Palin supported as part of her "Mama
Grizzlies" pack have come to gain broader acceptance by the party's
mainstream. In 2010, Palin endorsed New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte,
calling her a "Granite State 'mama grizzly' who has broken barriers."
Just two years later, Ayotte will speak during a prime-time convention slot on Tuesday.
Palin's relative absence on the national stage also allowed Bachmann "to fill the vacuum," Ornstein said.
Palin's persona non
grata status is "more a matter of they can't control her message as
they've already learned," said Michele Swers, professor of American
government at Georgetown University. "It's always useful when they can
showcase Republican women, but they'd rather showcase Kelly Ayotte than
Sarah Palin."
Some conservatives feel the party is giving the cold shoulder by not allowing her to speak.
"I think it's a big
mistake," Appell said. "If no other reason you would have a very popular
voice using prime time to peel the bark off Barack Obama in front of a
national television audience."
For her part, Palin is careful in how she has phrased her notable absence from the convention's speaking roster.
"This year is a good
opportunity for other voices to speak at the convention and I'm excited
to hear them," Palin wrote in statement earlier this month. "As I've
repeatedly said, I support Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan in their efforts to
replace President Obama at the ballot box, and I intend to focus on
grassroots efforts to rally Independents and the GOP base to elect
Senate and House members so a wise Congress is ready to work with our
new president to get our country back on the right path."
But do not count Palin
out, political experts say. She still has plenty of pull and will likely
bide her time before making her next big move.
"To say she is
irrelevant would be a mistake," Ornstein said. "When she gets involved
in a primary it has an impact. That doesn't translate into the broader
national role that she could have had. But there are second, third,
fourth, and fifth acts in American politics. The fact that she isn't a
major factor in American politics now doesn't mean she won't be in 2013
or a subsequent point."
Palin backed Sarah
Steelman in the Missouri Republican primary against politically
beleaguered Senate candidate Rep. Todd Akin. Republican leaders,
including Romney, are now pushing Akin to drop out of the highly
contested race against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill after the
congressman's controversial comments on "legitimate rape."
During a recent Fox News interview, Palin suggested "maybe it is a third-party run of Sarah Steelman that I can get behind."
Palin is scarcely
twiddling her thumbs while sitting on the sidelines. Her endorsements of
congressional candidates have built an army of supporters inside the
Beltway.
"If Romney loses by a
big margin there will be a move by center-leaning Republicans to
recapture dominance," Ornstein said. "But you're not going to see a lot
of conservatives saying 'we were wrong about this.' You're going to have another chapter in this ongoing struggle. There will be a vacuum, Sarah could fill that vacuum."
And if Romney wins Palin
will be right there on his heels making sure he sticks to his
conservative promises, political experts say. She'll be joined by other
conservative voices such as Bachmann, Cain, Rep. Eric Cantor,
R-Virginia, and Sen. Jim DeMint, R-South Carolina—all vying for
dominance of who represents conservatives.
"If Romney and (Paul
Ryan) win, the question is do they implement a series of policies that
fit the sharp conservative agenda," Ornstein said adding that
conservatives will rally to force the Romney
administration to keep its promises. "If (the Romney administration)
tack to the center, who's going to be leading that charge ... Sarah
Palin."