Palin AWOL On Campaign Trail

National Journal, Hotline On Call: Palin AWOL On Campaign Trail
No campaign surrogate has been more closely watched this election season than former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R). The media -- this website included -- has analyzed, and overanalyzed the success and failures of Palin's endorsed candidates to try to extrapolate signs of her political standing as she considers a 2012 presidential run.

But since primary season -- when Palin had a more robust campaign schedule -- the 2008 vice presidential contender has been remarkably absent from the campaign trail, choosing instead to only endorse candidates via Facebook and Twitter and stick to her TV hits on Fox News. Palin has made public stumping appearances in only 13 races, almost entirely in the primary season. That pales in comparison to, say, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who has stumped for nearly 60 candidates this fall.

While Palin has made endorsements in nine active Senate races, until last week she had only done one general election rally -- for Marco Rubio (R) in Florida.

All of which makes Palin's rally for Alaska Republican contender Joe Miller last Thursday striking. By appearing at a large rally in her home state, Palin put her political capital on the line. If Miller loses to Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R) write-in campaign or Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) squeaks through, Palin stands to squander much of her political clout.

"If she loses, that one it is going to send a signal to everybody about her clout even her in her home state," said University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato.

Michael Carey, a columnist for the Anchorage Daily News noted Monday that Palin may not end up helping Miller.

"There is a large number of people [in Alaska] who have stopped listening to her and have moved on," Carey said on MSNBC Monday.

Calls to Palin's political action committee were not returned.

More broadly, Palin's political muscle is already being questioned in Republican circles. Some say Palin has become such a polarizing figure that Republicans will steer clear of her in the future. When Palin made a last minute decision to campaign for Republican John Raese (R) in West Virginia last weekend, some questions were raised about whether the hasty decision actually helped Raese since very few voters knew of Palin's appearance before she got there.

"The only reason you have her come out is to rally people," said Republican pollster Tyler Harber. "If she isn't interested in doing that, I think you'll find a lot of people who are unwilling to accept Palin's endorsement or help."


To be fair, of the 13 Republican candidates for whom Palin has stumped this year, several are appear to be cruising toward wins on Tuesday. They include South Carolina gubernatorial contender Nikki Haley (R), whose campaign took off after Palin endorsed her campaign.

But two of the candidates Palin stumped for in the primary season -- Georgia gubernatorial contender Karen Handel (R) and Idaho House hopeful Vaughn Ward (R) -- didn't make it through their primaries, when both were initially favored.

Because Palin invokes such loyalty from a small, conservative segment of the GOP, observers say her endorsement has become mainly helpful in primaries, but counterproductive in general elections where she tends to turn off moderate voters. Sabato compared her to Jesse Jackson on the left in the 1980s -- someone who was a valuable endorsement in the primary election but too polarizing in the general.

When Palin went to California recently for Republican rallies. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R), who is running for the Senate and has been endorsed by Palin, did not make an appearance at the events.

"She's controversial. She's a polarizer," Sabato said. "She's a classic case of a politician who can help a candidate a lot in a low turnout partisan primary, but generally costs votes in the higher turnout general election."